Mason News Nov. 26, 2012
By James Greif

The world is currently operating at 25 percent of its entrepreneurial capacity, according to the Global Entrepreneurship Barometer (GEBAR) released by Mason’s Center for Entrepreneurship and Public Policy (CEPP).

GEBAR was developed from an analysis of world economic data in the Global Entrepreneurship and Development Index and provides an annual global forecast for productive entrepreneurship. The barometer details the world’s status in fostering entrepreneurs that are innovative, create jobs, expand markets, export goods and spur economic growth.

“Our forecast shows that the world’s entrepreneurial weather is changing, moving from rainy to fairer weather,” says Zoltan Acs, professor of public policy and director of CEPP. “Twenty-five percent entrepreneurial capacity is significant given the gloomy outlook over the past few years.”

“Overall, it’s a positive development, yet if impediments such as restrictive policies and corruption are addressed, capacity could reach 45 percent by 2052. However, population changes alone by 2050 can reduce productive entrepreneurship by one percent a decade or more if left unchecked,” he adds.

In GEBAR, rainy and stormy weather indicates higher levels of unproductive entrepreneurship such as market manipulation and crime, which interfere with and undermine national economic growth and prosperity.

“In weak and corrupt institutional environments where unproductive entrepreneurship flourishes, productive entrepreneurs tend to avoid starting a business,” Acs explains.

Sunny weather for innovators indicates that positive developments, such as creating the conditions for productive entrepreneurship to grow, are taking place.

“Entrepreneurship potential in formerly closed economies like those in Russia and China, as well as in large developing countries such as Brazil and India, indicate positive trends in global innovation, according to our analysis,” Acs says.

“The world’s entrepreneurial outlook seems to be improving, and initiatives such as the recent Global Entrepreneurship Week are important facilitators for creating the conditions for ‘sunny weather’ ahead,” Acs says. “Next year’s forecast will show us if this trend continues,” he adds.

The GEBAR is calculated using data from more than 130 countries and includes more than 90 percent of the world’s population. Acs leads the GEBAR research team, which includes economists and statisticians, as well as management and development experts at major universities across the globe. The team works closely with leading research centers and international agencies to help policy makers build vibrant entrepreneurial communities.

Write to James Greif at jgreif@gmu.edu